Royal Ascot 2016 Trendspotting
by David Myers
Welcome to the Royal Ascot 2016 Trendspotting where I'll be highlighting all of the key profitable statistics, trends and patterns to have emerged from the Royal Meeting in recent times.
From winning trainer/jockey combinations, breeding and the betting, through to the all-important draw, all the relevant information will be brought to your attention in the quest of finding the path to profit.
But the first port of call for many is checking which trainers and jockeys have proven themselves at this meeting in the past, and a glance at the table below highlights those handlers who have taken a shining to Royal Ascot's winner's enclosure.
Top Trainers 2006-2015
|Sir M Stoute||21-149||-33||16-96||5-35||--||8-68||13-81|
|S Bin Suroor||8-128||-54||6-88||2-40||1-14||4-40||3-74|
With 91 Royal Ascot winners between them since 2006, punters will need to check runners hailing from the Aidan O'Brien, Sir Michael Stoute, John Gosden and Mark Johnston yards, as more winners seem likely at the 2016 meeting. However, with a clear level stakes not easy to produce from such popular names, it's worth taking a closer look at each of the 'big boys' in order of highlighting where the profits lurk:
Royal Ascot tally last five years:
Best races (all-time): Coventry Stakes (7); St James's Palace Stakes (7); Ascot Gold Cup (6); Queen's Vase (4); Jersey Stakes (3); Queen Anne Stakes (3); Prince of Wales's Stakes (2); Tercentenary Stakes (2); Coronation Stakes (2); Chesham Stakes (2); Hardwicke Stakes (2); Norfolk Stakes (2)
While Aidan O'Brien didn't beat his best tally of six winners from 2008 12 months ago, his figures of 5-18 returned a career best strike-rate at this meeting for an impressive level stakes profit of +£28. O'Brien's favourites continue to earn respect with a 10-year record here of 21-45 (+£12) - two of his four jollies struck here 12 months ago.
A cautionary note should be made of his runners over 1m2f-1m4f, though, as he struck at just 5-55 (-36), compared to his performers over other trips at 19-145 (+£31). Other sources of profit via O'Brien's runners can be found in the following areas:
46 days or longer absence: 8-26 (+£28)
Group 1 or 2 last time out: 18-86 (+£20)
4yo+ races: 14-47 (+£4)
SIR MICHAEL STOUTE
Best races: Hardwicke Stakes (9); King Edward VII Stakes (6); Duke of Edinburgh Stakes (5); King George V Stakes (4); Coronation Stakes (4); Queen's Vase (4); Windsor Forest Stakes (3); Jersey Stakes (3); Ribblesdale Stakes (2); Wolferton Stakes (2); Queen Alexandra Stakes (2); Tercentenary Stakes (2)
A disappointing return of just one winner (1-17) for Sir Michael Stoute 12 months ago, but he has bounced back previously, having a similar return of 1-16 in 2007, prior to hitting back with 3-19 a year later - in short, don't write him off. Stoute's record in the Hardwicke takes also bares close scrutiny, a race that also falls in the second half of the week, where the Newmarket handler enjoyed most success:
Tuesday, Wednesay and Thursday: 7-86 (-£49)
Friday and Saturday: 14-63 (+£16)
Other areas of interest include:
1m4f-2m: 13-38 (+£28)
Ran last time at Epsom, Goodwood or York: 10-29 (+£26)
Same class as last time: 5-20 (+£24)
Ryan Moore: 10-34 (+£20)
Best races: Prince of Wales's Stakes (3); Britannia Stakes (3); King Edward VII Stakes (3); Wolferton Stakes (3); Jersey Stakes (2); Windsor Forest Stakes (2); Tercentenary Stakes (2); Coronation Stakes (2); Chesham Stakes (2); Royal Hunt Cup (2).
Another double added further strength to John Gosden's liking for Royal Ascot, making it a tally of 14 winners since 2011 (+£18). Gosden continues to do well with his 4yos at this meeting, and certainly likes to get them ready for the big prize money offer, as was seen 12 months ago when Mahsoob and Gm Hopkins took valuable handicaps.
Other areas of strength include:
12/1 or shorter: 20-88 (+£52)
William Buick: 11-55 (+£34)
Group 2 events: 7-38 (+£11)
Best races: Queen's Vase (7); King George V Stakes (4); Hardwicke Stakes (4); Ascot Gold Cup (3); Chesham Stakes (3); Duke of Edinburgh Stakes (3); King Edward VII Stakes (2); Sandringham Handicap (2).
Mark Johnston struck twice at the 2015 meeting with runners from the shorter end of the market, and his overall 10-year record here with those at 16/1 or shorter stands at 16-92 (+£37), compared to those bigger at 0-104.
Johnston also did well with runners officially rated 96-103: 10-42 (+£46), while distances of 1m2f-2m: 12-86 (+£16) also paid dividends.
Elsewhere, Saeed Bin Suroor can never be underestimated in specific events such as the Queen Anne Stakes (7 wins), Ascot Gold Cup (5) and Ribblesdale Stakes (5), though he is one to be careful of, having struck at just 1-30 at this meeting during the last three years.
Wesley Ward on the other hand, continues to visit the winner's enclosure at Royal Ascot, courtesy of six winning juveniles returning a clear profit for punters, while Hughie Morrison bagged another winner 12 months ago and should be noted in handicaps (5-35 +£22).
A couple of trainers who haven't lived up to previous numbers at this meeting, however, are James Fanshawe (0-10 since 2012) and Willie Haggas (1-59 since 2011), though two handlers who have made a regular appearance on the scoreboard of late are Richard Hannon Junior and Willie Mullins. Hannon sent out four winners in his first two years at this fixture, while Mullins had four winners since 2012 - each of the eight winners from both yards returned at 8/1 or shorter.
A final mention goes to Mick Channon in non-Group 1 and 2 events, where he returned at 6-96 (+£59).
Top Jockeys 2006-2015
Best races (all-time):Hardwicke Stakes (4); Duke of Edinburgh Stakes (3); Queen Alexandra Stakes (3); Tercentenary Stakes (2); Queen's Vase (3); Britannia Stakes (2).
Just when things didn't seem they could get any better at this meeting for Ryan Moore following his six-timer in 2014, he goes and rattles up an incredible nine winners in 2015. The strength in depth of rides Moore receives via the likes of Aidan O'Brien 8-41 +£4) and Sir Michael Stoute (9-51 +£2) means he is never going to be far away from the winner's enclosure.
While Moore can never be overlooked on any runner across the five days at Ascot, he has returned a decent profit in the following areas:
8/1 or shorter: 33-140 (+£37)
Favourites : 19-51 (+£20)
Class 2 races: 13-74 (+£22)
Best races: Queen Anne Stakes (6); Ribblesdale Stakes (6); Ascot Gold Cup (5); Chesham Stakes (4); Sandringham Handicap (3); Norfolk Stakes (3); Prince of Wales's Stakes (3); King Edward VII Stakes (3); Royal Hunt Cup (2); Queen's Vase (2)
Despite showing a near -£100 level stakes loss at this meeting since 2006, Frankie Dettori continues to boot home the winners at his favourite racecourse, as was proven 12 months ago when he notched a treble.
As for the specific areas in which Dettori shone, then 12 of his 15 winners came in fields consisting 15 runners or less, while 14 winners came in Group/Listed events - his record in other events stands at just 1-55. It's also worth looking for those runners Dettori rode last time, as they struck at 11-86 (+£21).
Best races: Albany Stakes (4); Coventry Stakes (2); Sandringham Handicap (2); Britannia Stakes (2)
Jamie Spencer doesn't seem to get the amount winners his talents deserve at this meeting, but he certainly knows how to ride the Ascot straight course, having returned an impressive tally of 11-107 (+£39).
Spencer also did well in races with 19 runners or more: 7-70 (+£37), along with inexperienced 2yos: 5-32 (+£65).
Best races: King Edward VII Stakes (2)
William Buick continues to keep knocking in the winners here, and his partnership with John Gosden is one to respect - the pair combining at an impressive 11-55 (+£34). Buick also offers a safe pair of hands on those with a realistic chance in the betting at 12/1 or shorter: 13-68 (+£38), while he also did well in fields of 14 runners or less: 10-60 (+£22).
Jimmy Fortune also rode plenty of winners for John Gosden when stable jockey to that yard, and while not the force of old with just one winner from his last 37 rides at the meeting, he can never be dismissed. Similar comments apply to Kieren Fallon, who is enjoying a decent season back in Ireland and is worth considering on the round course here where he struck at 5-45 (9%), compared to just 1-62 on the straight.
Another jockey who enjoys the round course better than the straight here is Joe Fanning. On the scoreboard in three of the last four years at the meeting, Fanning struck over trips of 1m2f-2m at 6-30 (+£35), while his partnership with Mark Johnston returned at 7-67 (+£3).
With last time out form such a valuable component in finding winners at Royal Ascot, knowing which racecourses and race types to have supplied winners at Ascot in the past can help point up some handy clues, as can be seen from the table below, listing the most productive tracks.
|Track||W-R||Win %||£1 profit|
The above table highlights the importance of last time out form via Newmarket, Newbury, Epsom, York and the Curragh, though the fact they all return a level stakes loss means a touch more digging is required in search of more precise clues.
One starting point comes via the market - for instance, those runners arriving from Newmarket that started as favourite (or joint) at Royal Ascot returned a profitable 10-33 (+£12). In fact, fancied runners at Ascot from Newmarket at 9/1 or shorter actually showed a clear profit at 29-159 (+£32). It's also worth respecting those with Newmarket form in the Ascot Group 1s, as they struck at 13-95 (+£16).
With the Epsom Derby meeting staged only a few weeks prior to Ascot, it may come as no surprise that 26 Ascot winners arrived via that route during the last 10 years. A closer look also tells us that those dropping down in distance by 1f to 4f did very well at 10-71 (+£85), with the likes of Pisco Sour 25/1 (1m2f from 1m4f), Approve 16/1 (5f from 6f), Mr Aviator 25/1 (1m from 1m2f), Uhoomagoo 25/1 (7f from 1m) and Snoqualmie Boy 33/1 (1m2f from 1m4f) all striking since 2006.
It's worth noting, however, that the amount of time between the two prestigious meetings has made a difference, as can be seen via the following stats:
Days from Epsom to Royal Ascot
6-10 days: 1-17 (6%) -£10
11-15 days: 14-171 (8%) £0
16-20 days: 9-131 (7%) -£29
21-25 days: 2-53 (4%) -£45
The above comparison bares close inspection, as Royal Ascot runners who arrived via the Epsom Derby fixture following a 6-10 or 21-25 days struck just three times from 70 attempts (4%), in comparison to an 11-15 day break at 14-171 (8%). With this year's rest period 9-14 days, there is good reason to view any recent Epsom in a positive light.
It paid to keep things simple when contemplating a wager on a runner with Newbury form last time out, as those racing over the same trip came in at 17-105 (+£15), while Newbury handicappers should be monitored (8-69 +£36) - Gm Hopkins the latest to boost that record when winning last year's Royal Hunt Cup.
Royal Ascot handicaps 2006-2015
|Last time out||Wins-Runs||£1 P/L|
|Fourth to eighth||17-681||-386|
|Ninth to sixteenth||13-276||+31|
|Seventeenth or worse||1-44||-10|
|Up in trip by 3.5f-4f from last time||7-60||+55|
|0-9 career runs||46-866||-395|
|10-16 career runs||22-436||+20|
|2-3 previous handicap wins||43-557||+66|
One of the main facts to be gleamed from above is that while last time out winners provided 26 handicap winners at Royal Ascot, they represented poor value at a level stakes loss of -£212. That record looks even more concerning when you compare it to runners-up last time, as they provided 20 winners - only six winners less - from just 258 runners, for a handsome return of +£38.
The distance last time also provided a pointer, with runners to have stepped up in trip by 4f from last time at 6-51 (+£54), while those still to show their hand to the handicapper with only 2-3 previous handicap wins returned 43-557 (+£66) - last year's Wokingham winner, Interception, the latest with such a profile.
THREE-YEAR-OLD handicaps 2005-2015
Punters eyeing up the handicaps throughout the week will have two kinds to study, those for all ages, such as the Wokingham, while races like the Britannia and King George V Stakes are for three-year-olds only. With that in mind, it could be worth noting the following criteria when studying the three-year-old handicaps.
Sixth to eighth in the weights: 9-88 (+£29)
Michael Bell: 3-22 (+£23)
8-10lb higher from last time: 8-66 (+£20)
Favourites (incl joint): 9-31 (+£18)
Tom Dascombe: 2-7 (+£7)
American-bred: 2-93 (-£53)
Maiden last time out: 1-52 (-£31)
The draw is always a major talking point across the five days, during which time the big-field events staged on the straight cause punters headaches. It may therefore prove worthwhile looking at the stats from the last five years of this fixture to see if there were any trends - more so the 'live' clues which can develop as the week develops, as a race like the Royal Hunt Cup (1m) may influence what happens in the Britannia over the same trip.
|King's Stand Stakes 5f||3/18 (gf)||8/16 (gd)||14/19 (gd)||7/22 (sft)||14/19 (gd)|
|Windsor Castle Stakes 5f||6/27 (gf)||25/24 (gd)||28/24 (gd)||18/23 (gd)||22/24 (gd)|
|Queen Mary Stakes 5f||20/20 (gf)||12/21 (gf)||16/23 (gf)||5/27 (gd)||7/14 (gd)|
|Coventry Stakes 6f||10/17 (gf)||1/15 (gd)||15/15 (gd)||13/22 (gs)||19/23 (gd)|
|Diamond Jubilee Stakes 6f||6/15 (gf)||4/14 (gf)||15/18 (gf)||15/14 (gd)||3/16 (sft)|
|Wokingham 6f||21/25 (gf)||27/28 (gf)||22/26 (gf)||15/28 (gd)||11/25 (sft)|
|Jersey Stakes 7f||9/16 (gf)||19/23 (gd)||4/21 (gf)||6/22 (gd)||5/9 (gd)|
|Sandringham Hcp 7f||14/17 (gf)||22/24 (gf)||3/26 (gf)||18/17 (gd)||1/14 (gd)|
|Buckingham Palace Stakes 7f||29/28 (gf)||29/28 (gf)||32/27 (gf)||11/23 (sft)||29/25 (sft)|
|Royal Hunt Cup 1m||11/30 (gf)||33/28 (gf)||6/28 (gf)||33/30 (gd)||24/28 (gd)|
|Britannia Stakes 1m||11/28 (gf)||26/20 (gf)||15/27 (gf)||6/29 (gd)||23/29 (gs)|
|Wolferton Handicap 1m2f||7/13 (gf)||15/13 (gf)||7/15 (gf)||8/13 (sft)||15/14 (gs)|
|King George V Stakes 1m4f||20/17 (gf)||14/18 (gf)||10/18 (gf)||17/18 (gs)||12/18 (gs)|
|Duke of Edinburgh Stakes 1m4f||21/17 (gf)||12/18 (gf)||10/16 (gf)||12/18 (gs)||21/16 (sft)|
If the trends from the last few years continue, then it could be another good meeting for those drawn in double-figure stalls (stands' side). The ground will of course be important, as the last few years came up on the firm side of good, but even looking back over the last five years of this meeting, those drawn high in 20+ runner fields came out best:
Straight course (5f-1m)
20+ runner fields since 2011
Low: 8 wins
Middle: 8 wins
High: 21 wins
As for distances on the round course over 1m2f-1m4f, then double-figure stalls held sway, with runners tending to fan down the middle in an attempt to avoid getting caught on the inside (low stalls). This became more pronounced in bigger fields, as can be seen:
Round course (1m2f/1m4f)
16+ runner fields
Stalls 1-9: 0 win
Stalls 10-18: 10 wins
As a final footnote, stalls 1-6 failed to win any of the 1m2f/1m4f races with 13 runners or more.
|Clear/joint favourite||Wins-Runs||£1 P/L|
|Group 1||31-76 (41%)||+14|
|Group 2||24-74 (32%)||+10|
|Group 3||14-35 (40%)||+16|
Favourite backers will be hoping for another five days of bookie bashing, as the market leader boasts one of the best records amongst racing's major festivals. Non-handicaps is where the majority of profits emerged for the jolly, while Group and Listed events also proved very kind.
It's worth noting, however, that 4yo+ favourites had an inferior strike-rate to the younger runners for an overall loss (-£15), unlike the 3yo jollies, who shone at 38-112 (+£37). A closer look also shows that 3yo favourites that arrived from the Curragh struck at 10-22 (+£9).
As for the last time out form of favourites, then be wary of market leaders who finished runner-up or third last time out, for they connected at just 15-71 (-£6), unlike last time out winners at 59-197 (+£4), though bigger profits actually came via the jollies who finished only fourth or worse last time out at 14-31 (+£27).
|Second favourite (incl joint)||Wins-Runs||£1 P/L|
With favourites producing such a glowing record at Royal Ascot, their deputies were somewhat put to the sword, returning an overall loss of -£71 since 2006. There is a glimmer of hope for second favourite backers in specific areas, though - for instance, those to have who arrived via Newbury struck here at 7-18 (+£24).
When studying winners at 10/1 or bigger, not many standout clues jump out towards the path to riches, but those that returned within 4-5 days of their last outing (including at the Royal meeting itself) produced four winners at 4-57 (+£35) - Lancelot Du Lac almost became the fifth when third in the Wokingham at 25/1 last year, having been unplaced in the King's Stand Stakes earlier in the week.
It's also worth considering a small punt on any runner priced at 10/1 to 33/1 who finished ninth or worse last time out, as they delivered at 16-271 (+£125) - backing them each-way would have seen 30 more placed for an EW strike-rate of 17%.
There may also be a clue to nailing a big-priced winner via the draw, as those who started at 33/1 to 100/1 on the straight course from stalls 26 to 33 popped up at 12-188 (+£64).
The average payout at Royal Ascot since 2011 was around £880, with day two averaging beyond that amount, boosted by a chunky £5k payout in 2013, when the first four home in the Royal Hunt Cup returned 33/1, 40/1, 50/1 and 25/1. But, for those seeking consistency and a more realistic chance of nailing 'the pot", then day one - with just one handicap - paid out £200+ in four of the last five years.
Day one: £175 - £200 - £564 - £872 - £40 (average £370)
Day two: £301 - £86 - £5,559 - £1,326 - £393 (average £1,535)
Day three: £122 - £1,376 - £63 - £1,505 - £209 (average £655)
Day four: £139 - £84 - £195 - £257 - £2,568 (average £649)
Day five: £4,385 - £38 - £844 - £508 - £262 (average £1,207)
With six superb two-year-old events for punters to sort through across the five days, every piece of statistical information and data is required in order of cracking such puzzles, and with that in mind, here are some handy stats that may help point the way.
Two-year-old races 2006-2015
|Last time out||Wins-Runs (%)||£1 P/L|
|Fifth or worse||1-104 (1%)||-83|
|No. of UK runs||Wins-Runs (%)||£1 P/L|
|No run||6-61 (10%)||+8|
|One run||25-320 (8%)||-144|
|Two runs||18-366 (5%)||-17|
|Three runs||7-175 (4%)||-113|
|Four runs+||4-98 (4%)||-50|
|Bred||Wins-Runs (%)||£1 P/L|
Of the above stats, it's interesting to note that those making their UK debuts having raced abroad were the only juveniles to return a profit at +£8. Those either American-bred (USA) or French-bred also returned a higher strike-rate in double-figures, while on the trainer front, Wesley Ward has a crisp record of 5-25 (+£30), with Aidan O'Brien also in profit at 6-44 (+£8).
The final pointer to take into account regarding the juveniles is that of the 60 winners here since 2006, 44 of them won last time out (including three from abroad).
Group 1 (2006-2015)
|Group 1 last time||34-242||-48|
|Group 2, 3 or Listed||24-441||-224|
|Up or down 1 furlong last time||10-141||+23|
|Same distance last time||32-395||-190|
|Won last time||27-189||-93|
|Beaten under 1l last time||6-106||-42|
|Beaten 1-2l last time||11-91||+30|
|Group 1 last time||7-68||-36|
|Group 2 last time||3-42||+6|
|Group 3 last time||17-130||-29|
|Sir M Stoute||10-47||+4|
|Leopardstown last time||3-13||+33|
|Group 1 last time||7-46||+43|
|Group 2, 3 or Listed||8-161||-111|
|A O Brien||5-30||+10|
|Sir M Stoute||4-10||+5|
With so many top-class Group events for backers to get their teeth into over the five days, it may help to have a few stats up the sleeve in search of some value. One fact involving Group 1 runners involves those who were beaten 1-2l last time, as they offered value at Ascot to the tune of 11-91 (+£30). Several Group 1 winners fitted that profile 12 months ago, including Trip To Paris, who was beaten 1.8l at Sandown the previous month, prior to winning the Ascot Gold Cup at 12/1.
As for Group 2s, then keep an eye out for any runner to have previously won just one Group 2 race, as they struck again at 8-34 (+£12), compared to those yet to win a Group 2 at just 7% (-£368). John Gosden's runners are also worth a second look.
There is also an angle to approaching Group 3 races, with runners dropping in class having tackled Group 1 company last time doing well at 7-46 (+£43), including Dutch Connection 12 months ago, who was seventh in the 2,000 Guineas prior to landing the Jersey Stakes.
LEADING SIRES AT ASCOT 2011-2015
|Oasis Dream||24-193 (12%)||+26||11-81||8-91||4-19||1-2||15-144||9-49|
|Exceed And Excel||18-181 (10%)||+85||10-93||8-84||0-4||--||14-129||4-52|
|Dark Angel||12-125 (10%)||-24||7-52||5-65||0-5||0-3||6-91||6-34|
|Cape Cross||12-125 (10%)||-13||1-14||6-72||4-28||1-11||10-89||2-36|
|Dutch Art||11-81 (14%)||0||7-35||3-43||1-3||--||7-59||4-22|
|Street Cry||10-47 (21%)||+14||2-5||6-33||2-9||--||9-28||1-19|
|Holy Roman Emperor||8-64 (12%)||+83||4-28||3-29||1-7||--||6-46||2-18|
|Danehill Dancer||8-90 (9%)||-37||1-12||3-44||4-30||0-4||8-66||0-24|
|Rock Of Gibraltar||8-64 (12%)||+5||3-24||1-19||3-14||1-7||5-50||3-14|
One of the last factors odds compilers will be taking into account before pricing up this week's big events is the sire of each runner, but a glance at the above table may help find some value. The fact four of the five leading sires all show a clear level stakes profit is evidence that a horse's breeding lines can point the way to value, and it is one of those aforementioned four sires, Exceed And Excel, whose runners continue to rack up the profits at Ascot.
Ascot - April 2015 to May 2016
Exceed And Excel 7-41 (+£33)
Shamardal 7-38 (+£9)
Dubawi 7-32 (+£6)
Oasis Dream 7-38 (+£22)
Exceed And Excel will have a host of interesting runners at the Royal meeting, including Hold Tight, was didn't shine in the Victoria Cup at Ascot last time, but was squeezed for room and deserves another chance in the Wokingham.
Dubawi also continues to sire winners here, and his progeny are always worth looking for over 1m2f-1m4f, including Dartmouth, who won over 1m4f here last season and heads back to the same C&D where he'll go for the Hardwicke Stakes. Dubawi is also responsible for Andre Fabre's, New Bay, third in last year's Arc, and on course for a crack at the Prince of Wales's Stakes.
Punters looking to get off to good start on the first day may look to the Irish 2,000 Guineas winner, Awtaad, in the St James's Palace Stakes, whose sire, Cape Cross, has a decent record at Ascot, more so with runners on decent ground.
Pattern races in 2016 (GB & Ireland)
Galileo 11-42 (-£5)
Bushranger 4-9 (+£24)
Lope De Vega 4-17 (0)
Cape Cross 4-14 (+£10)
Dubawi 4-19 (-£6)
Topping this season's list for providing the most Pattern winners is Galileo, and the fact he also sent out numerous Ascot winners could bode well for the current Ascot Gold Cup favourite, Order Of St George.
TRIALS & POINTERS
The most popular approach for the majority of punters when weighing-up a bet is to refer to a horse's last time out run, and there is good reason, as last time out form is obviously the most reliable - no breaking news there! However, the type of race a horse ran is of importance, especially at a major festival like Royal Ascot where certain races have been superb pointers in the past and can once more be trusted.
With that in mind, listed below are the remaining long-term leading trials & pointers in the UK to have provided numerous Ascot winners since 1997.
|Race||Subsequent winners at Royal Ascot|
|Irish 2,000 Guineas||15 - St James's Palace Stakes (12), Jersey Stakes (3)|
|Lockinge Stakes||11 - Queen Anne Stakes (10), Windsor Forest Stakes (1)|
|Henry II Stakes||10 - Gold Cup (7), Queen Alexandra Stakes (3)|
|1,000 Guineas||10 - Coronation Stakes (7), Ribblesdale (1) Sandringham Handicap (2)|
|Coronation Cup||8 - Hardwicke Stakes (7) Prince of Wales's Stakes (1)|
|Epsom Oaks||7 - Ribblesdale Stakes (5), Coronation Stakes (1), Sandringham Handicap (1)|
|Epsom Derby||7 - King Edward Stakes VII (2), Hampton Court (2), Queen's Vase (1) Sandringham Handicap (1), St James's Palace Stakes (1)|
|Tattersalls Gold Cup||6 - Prince of Wales's Stakes (5), Wolferton Stakes (1)|
|Hambleton Handicap||6 - Wolferton Stakes (3), Royal Hunt Cup (2), Prince of Wales (1)|
|Temple Stakes||6 - King's Stand Stakes (6)|
|King's Stand Stakes||5 - Diamond Jubilee Stakes (4), Wokingham (1)|
|Irish 1,000 Guineas||5 - Coronation Stakes (4); Jersey Stakes|
|Duke Of York Stakes||5 - Diamond Jubilee Stakes (5)|
|Victoria Cup||5 - Royal Hunt Cup (2), Buckingham Palace (2), Wokingham (1)|
|Lingfield Derby Trial||5 - Queens Vase (4), King George V Stakes (1)|
|Chester Cup||4 - Ascot Stakes (2), Queen Alexandra Stakes (2)|
|King Charles II Stakes||4 - Jersey Stakes (4)|
|Fairway Stakes||4 - King Edward VII Stakes (2), Queen's Vase (1) Hampton Court (1)|
|Saval Beg Stakes||4 - Gold Cup (3), Queen Alexandra Stakes (1)|
|Ormonde Stakes||4 - Hardwicke Stakes (3), Cumberland Lodge Stakes (1)|
|Ascot Stakes||4 - Queen Alexandra Stakes (4)|
|Princess Elizabeth Satkes||4 - Windsor Forest Stakes (4)|
|National Stakes||4 - Queen Mary Stakes (3), Norfolk Stakes (1)|
|Huxley Stakes||4 - Hardwicke Stakes (4)|
|London Gold Cup||4 - Tercentenary Stakes (2), King Edward VII Stakes (1), King George V Stakes (1)|
|Brigadier Gerard Stakes||3 - Hardwicke Stakes (2), Prince of Wales's Stakes (1)|
|Hilary Needler Stakes||3 - Queen Mary Stakes (2), Windsor Castle (1)|
|Yorkshire Cup||3 - Gold Cup (2), Queen Alexandra (1)|
|Dante Stakes||3 - King Edward VII Stakes (2), Hampton Court Stakes (1)|
|Silver Bowl Handicap||3 - Britannia Stakes (3)|
|Greenham Stakes||3 - St James's Palace Stakes (3)|
|Marygate Stakes||3 - Queen Mary Stakes (3)|
With 12 winners of the St James's Palace Stakes coming via the Irish 2,000 Guineas, the omens look good for this year's winner, AWTAAD ATR Tracker, who was impressive at the Curragh and looks sure to go well.
Also seeking to double up is BELARDO ATR Tracker, who won the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury, an event that has proven a reliable guide for the Queen Anne Stakes. Indeed, 10 winners of the Queen Anne came from the Lockinge, and this year's winner looks decent each-way value at around the 8/1 mark.
Aidan O'Brien's followers may be looking forward to Friday's Coronation Stakes, as there could be compensation in store for those who backed BALLYDOYLE ATR Tracker in the 1,000 Guineas. This Galileo filly was unfortunate to get a blocked path at Newmarket, prior to finishing powerfully into second, but the fact seven Coronation winners ran at HQ adds confidence.
One race climbing the above chart is Newbury's London Gold Cup Handicap, which has produced several recent winners at Ascot. This fact was underlined 12 months ago, when Time Test scored before adding the Tercentenary Stakes at Ascot. This year's renewal from Newbury saw an impressive winner in IMPERIAL AVIATOR ATR Tracker, who would still look well treated off 99 if going for a handicap. CARTAGO ATR Tracker and PRINCE OF ARRAN ATR Trackerare two others to look out for.
The final word goes to FASCINATING ROCK ATR Tracker, who won the Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh in May, and could opt for the Prince of Wales's Stakes if the ground has some cut. The Gold Cup paved the way for five Prince of Wales winners since 1997, and Fascinating Rock is a big improver who could add to that record.